As anyone who has ever been in an argument with their significant other knows, there are 3 sides to every story: their side, your side, and the truth. Going with that theme, here are the pluses and minuses of the Randy Moss trade, plus a final, more grounded conclusion.
Good Move
There is one basic question I have asked everyone who has seemed to relish in the Patriots “trading away their season”: How many Super Bowls have we won with Randy? How many have we won previously? Answer: 0 and 3. Yes he makes the offense one of the most explosive. Yes he consistently demands attention from two defenders. And yes, the Patriots teams before Moss were predicated on their ability to play defense. But we have grown increasingly more one dimensional with Moss in the mix.
I’ll spare you the statistical talk and keep everything simple: before acquiring Moss, our pass to throw ration was about 2:1. With Moss? 4:1. While his ability to stretch the field is unmatched, it, in many ways, has made the Pats a more predictable offense.
The emergence of Taylor/Ellis/Woodhead, not to mention the surprising play of Gronkowski and Hernandez, have allowed the Pats the ability to spread it around, something that doesn’t sit to well with the original Wide Receiver Diva. With the potential distraction removed, you could make the case the Pats can sleep a bit better at night.
From a business standpoint, it was almost inevitable the Patriots weren’t interested in keeping Moss past this year. Moving him now assures you get some type of return on your investment, something that has become crucial in the days of free agency. And while it’s not a first round pick, it does give us two selections in the first four rounds in the upcoming draft. That kind of flexibility will potentially opens up other trade possibilities that could directly improve this years most pressing needs: defensive back, defensive line, and, now, wide receiver.
Bad Move
I will again refrain from killing you with numbers. But let’s ask this question: over the past 10 years, what player not named Michael Vick has had the most impact on opposing defenses schemes? Moss’ impact is clear. Instead of playing 11 on 10 (the quarterback being a wash unless he is a threat to run), defenses have had to resort to playing 9 on 10, with a corner and either a linebacker or safety (depending on the down and distance) shadowing Randy. By subtracting him from your arsenal, you now swing the numbers game back into the defenses favor.
The run game will also suffer for a similar reason. Without Moss’ speed, teams can now afford to walk their safety and corners up more frequently, allowing more support to a fast improving Patriots rushing game. This was out of the question until earlier today. Without a true game breaker at wide out, you’ll see a hell of a lot more blitz packages, which will put more pressure on the newest number one, Wes Welker. Speaking of Wes…
Many will argue that Wes Welker has been the key to the Patriots offense, and the numbers seem to back that up. But a lot of that can be contributed to what I like to call the Manny Ramirez effect. For the past three years, Welker has had Moss to bat behind him, assuring that he gets a good amount of pitches to hit. No more. Now you can single cover any Patriots corner (I guarantee Revis doesn’t pull up lame on any play the next time the Pats meet the Jets), and allow whatever help you devoted to containing Moss to getting into Welker’s running lanes should you need to.
As for the business side…poor, poor trade. Moss is 33, but many of those years were spent “hurt.” He also hasn’t taken that much abuse as a result of him being used primarily as a deep threat. His body is more like that of someone 29. If you trade him for a draft pick, you most certainly better make sure it’s a conditional pick, with a third rounder being as bad as it gets. If Randy goes to Minnesota and catches 75 balls for 1000 plus yards and 10 or so touchdowns, the Patriots come away looking just as foolish as the Raiders, Vikings, and the 20 teams who passed on him in the draft. Randy Moss straight up for a 3rd rounder is a head-scratcher at best.
The Truth
To be determined. If the Pats can package this pick with say a Logan Mankins, or move a 2nd rounder for a Vincent Jackson type player, then this deal was great. If not, its Super Bowl or bust. Then again, when has it ever not been?
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