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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Eastern Mass Playoff Outlook

     No need to search around for info on who's got the inside track on playoff spots; we've got everything right here.  Below you'll see who's in, the teams still alive, as well as likely scenarios.  We'll keep this updated until all leagues and conferences are squared away. 

Division 1
Big Three:
- Favorite: #2 Brockton 8-1 (1-0); vs. New Bedford - Brockton is in the driver's seat, and all signs point to them returning to the post-season despite seeming more and more beatable from.
- Knocking on the Door: New Bedford 4-4 (0-0); at Brockton - Brockton may have the inside track, but given the way they've played recently, New Bedford has to like their chances of stealing a win this weekend. If they do, and can beat 3-6 Durfee on Thanksgiving, they'd be the team representing the Big Three in the playoffs.

Catholic Conference:
- Favorite: #4 Xaverian (7-2; 2-0); at Catholic Memorial - The Hawks have found their stride since dropping two straight a few weeks back, but they face a very ticked off Catholic Memorial team this weekend. 
- Knocking on the Door: St. John's Prep (6-3; 2-0); at BC High - Prep has been rolling lately, winning three straight and outscoring opponents 101-36 during that stretch.  They've got BC High this weekend, but a win sets them up with a Thanksgiving showdown against Xaverian that will decide the Catholic Conference champion.  I feel like that's happened before...
- Dark Horse A: Catholic Memorial (5-3; 1-1); vs. Xaverian - The Knights proved last weekend they can play with anyone, pushing Brockton to the brink before losing on a last second bomb.  Their schedule sets up well; if they beat Xaverian and BC High, they'll finish 3-1 in the conference, and own a tie-breaker over Xaverian.  While they lost to SJP, it is very possible Prep loses both their final games.  If that were all to happen, they'd earn themselves a play-off birth.  
- Dark Horse B: BC High (4-4; 1-1); vs. St. John's Prep - The Eagles need some help.  They are 1-1 with a win against Malden Catholic and a loss to Xaverian.  For them to advance, they need to first beat both St. John's Prep and Catholic Memorial.  They would then need Prep and CM to beat Xaverian.  It's a lot, but could happen.  

Greater Boston League
- Favorite: #1 Everett (8-0; 2-0); vs. Malden - The champion will essentially be decided this weekend, as Malden pays the Crimson Tide a visit.  If Everett wins, the league is theirs.
- Knocking on the Door: Malden (4-4; 2-0); at Everett - Despite their early season struggles, Malden has a chance to win the GBL this weekend.  They are perfect in league play, and if they are able to shock Everett, they'll get the GBL's playoff bid.
- Dark Horse: Cambridge (2-5; 1-1); vs. Somerville - It's possible, but not probable.  For the Falcons to shock the state, they need to beat Somerville this weekend, then hope Everett handles business against Malden.  They would then have to beat Everett (in Everett), and hope Medford can pull off an upset against Malden on Thanksgiving.  Again, not probable, but possible. 

Merrimack Valley Large
- Favorite: Central Catholic (6-3; 2-0); at Billerica - There is really no clear-cut favorite in this one, but CC is undefeated in league play, so they get the nod.  That may change this weekend, as they'll have to find a way to slow Billerica's Nick LeSpada.  A win this weekend would go a long way, as their match-up on Thanksgiving with Andover looks to be the deciding game,
- Knocking on the Door A: Chelmsford (6-3; 2-1); at Tewksbury - They've got an out of conference game this weekend, and they need a little help, but if Lowell can upset Andover, and Billerica and Andover beat Central Catholic, it would allow them to sneak in by beating Billerica Thankgiving.
- Knocking on the Door B: Andover (6-3; 1-1); at Lowell - Winning out is a must.  Wins against Lowell and Central Catholic will push their league record to 3-1.  They would then need Billerica to defeat Chelmsford on T-Day.
- Dark Horse: Billerica (5-4; 1-1); vs. Central Catholic - Finishing 2-0 is mandatory.  A win this week would put them at 2-1, and give them the tie-breaker over CC should the two finish tied for first.  Then, they would need to beat Chelmsford on Thanksgiving, and hope Andover loses one of their next two.  We're calling them a Dark Horse, but any team with a player like Nick LeSpada shouldn't be counted out. 

Division 1A
Bay State Carey
- In: #8 Weymouth (9-0; 9-0); vs.Brookline - Nothing left for the Wildcats to do but try and keep their perfect record in tact.

Dual County Large
 - Favorite: Lincoln-Sudbury (6-3; 3-0); at Boston Latin - L-S controls their own destiny, as they can clinch a playoff birth with a win against Latin.
- Dark Horse A: Acton-Boxborough (7-1; 2-1); at Newton South - After their loss to L-S last weekend, they'll need to win out, and have L-S drop both of their remaining games.  
- Dark Horse B: Westford (6-3; 2-1); at Waltham - Westford also has a loss to L-S on it's resume, so they'll need to win out and hope Boston Latin and Newton South can pull of major upsets.

Northeastern Large
- Favorite: #3 Gloucester (9-0; 4-0); vs. Lynn Classical - This weeks match-up with Lynn Classical is essentially the conference championship, as a win solidifies Gloucester getting the chance to defend its crown. 
- Knocking on the Door: Lynn Classical (8-1; 3-0); at Gloucester - Win and their in, as an upset at Gloucester this weekend will push them to 4-0 in the league, and give them the tie-breaker with Gloucester, making their Thanksgiving match-up with high powered Lynn English insignificant.

Old Colony
- In: Bridgewater-Raynham (7-2; 2-0); at Taunton - Their win last weekend against Barnstable sewed up another OCL championship.

Division 2
Bay State Hegret
- In: Walpole (9-0; 9-0); vs. Milton - No competition for the Rebels this year, as all they have left to accomplish during the regular season is beating rival and fellow unbeaten Weymouth.

Hockomock
- Favorite: #7 Mansfield (8-1; 7-0); at Canton - A win this weekend against 0-8-1 Canton locks up a postseason birth for the Hornets, as they own the tie-breaker against the two teams still alive.
- Dark Horse A: North Attleborough (8-1; 6-1); vs. King Phillip - North Attleborough needs to win out, then hope both Canton and Foxborough can pull off upsets against Mansfield.  It won't be easy, as they host King Philip this weekend, and the combined records of Canton and Foxborough are 4-13-1.  
- Dark Horse B: King Philip (7-1; 6-1); at North Attleborough - Tough sledding for King Philip as well, as they need to go to North Attleborough and win, then take care of Franklin on Turkey Day and hope for both Canton and Foxborough to upset Mansfield.

Merrimack Valley Small
- Favorite: #6 Methuen (8-1; 2-0); at Lawrence - A win this week against lowly Lawrence sets up a potential Thanksgiving Day showdown with Dracut that will decide the league champion.  For the Rangers, a healthy Raudy Minaya makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the state.  If he's hurt, the load falls squarely on their rushing attack.
- Knocking on the Door: Dracut (6-3; 2-0); at Haverhill - Remember when everyone wrote off the Middies earlier this year?  Well, a win at Haverhill this weekend will force what amounts to a one-game playoff with rival Methuen.
Middlesex
- Favorite: #10 Reading (9-0; 6-0); vs. Lexington - If Reading can take care of Lexington this weekend, they'll punch their ticket to the post-season.  
- Dark Horse: Lexington (5-4; 4-2); at Reading - Winning out is paramount, and that starts with their trip to Reading this weekend.  It wont get any easier on Thanksgiving, as they would need to find a way to slow the Burlington rushing attack.  Beyond that, they'd need Stoneham to upset Reading. 

Division 2A
Atlantic Coast
- Favorite: Plymouth North (7-2; 3-0); at Dennis-Yarmouth - Huge game for North this weekend, as a win solidifies a trip to the post-season. 
- Knocking on the Door A: Dennis-Yarmouth (8-1; 3-1); vs. Plymouth North - The Dolphins are still very much in it.  They need to knock off North this weekend, which would bring their conference record to 4-1, and open the door for a three-way tie between North, Marshfield, and themselves.
- Knocking at the Door B: Marshfield (4-4; 3-1); vs. Sandwich - Marshfield is also alive, but needs Dennis-Yarmouth, who they've previously beaten, to beat North this weekend.  That, coupled with a win against Sandwich, would bring us to the aforementioned three-way tie.  For them to advance outright, they need a win, and Plymouth North to drop both of their remaining games. 

Cape Ann Large
- Favorite: North Andover (8-1; 3-0); vs. Pentucket - Another win and your in situation here.
- Knocking on the Door: Pentucket (7-2; 2-1); at North Andover - The Sachems need to beat North Andover this weekend, then beat rival Triton on Thanksgiving in order to extend their season.

Dual County Small
- Favorite: Concord-Carlisle (7-2; 3-0); vs. Tyngsborough - Concord-Carlisle controls their own destiny, as wins at Tyngsborough and Bedford will earn them a playoff birth.
- Knocking on the Door: Bedford (5-3; 2-1); at Wayland - Bedford actually has the second most direct route to a title, as a win at Wayland and at home against C-C coupled with another Weston loss would propel them to the league title.
- Dark Horse A: Weston (8-1; 2-1); vs. Arlington - Weston dropped their match-up with C-C, but if they can manage wins against Arlington and Wayland, they can still play on, pending C-C loses to both Tyngsborough and Bedford.
- Dark Horse B: Wayland (4-5; 2-1); vs. Bedford -Wayland is also still alive.  They've lost to C-C, so they need to win their remaining two against Bedford and Weston, then have C-C drop both their remaining games. 

Patriot (Keenan)
- Favorite: Duxbury (9-0; 3-0); vs. Hingham - Duxbury needs only a victory this weekend against Hingham to win the conference outright.  A loss would cause a three-way tie between Hingham, Silver Lake, and themselves.
- Knocking on the Door A: Hingham (6-1; 2-1); at Duxbury - Hingham needs a win this weekend at Duxbury to keep their playoff aspirations alive.  A win would put them above Duxbury, but below Silver Lake, whom they've lost to.
- Knocking on the Door B: Silver Lake (5-4; 3-1); vs. Quincy - Silver Lake is done with league play, compiling a 3-1 record that includes a win over Hingham, but a loss against Duxbury.  They're hoping for a Hingham win this weekend.

Division 3
Eastern Athletic
- Favorite: Somerset (9-0; 3-0); vs. Bishop Feehan - Somerset can lock up a title with a win against Bishop Feehan, who has quietly went undefeated in league play.
- Knocking on the Door: Bishop Feehan (4-5; 3-0); at Somerset - All their early season struggles mean nothing, as Feehan has put themselves in a position to play past Thanksgiving if they can beat Somerset this weekend.  It''ll be tough, but stranger things have happened.

Northeastern Small
- Favorite: Beverly (4-5; 4-0); vs. Swampscott - Believe it or not, Beverly has won four straight and is sitting pretty atop the NE Small.  A win over high powered Swampscott this weekend wraps up a title for the Panthers.
- Knocking on the Door: Swampscott (7-2; 2-1); at Beverly - Early on, it looked like Swampscott would roll through the league, but after dropping a game at home against Winthrop, they find themselves in a must-win game at Beverly this weekend that could seal their fate.

Patriot (Fisher)
- Favorite: Scituate (7-2; 3-0); at Pembroke - Scituate heads to the post season with a win at Pembroke this weekend.
- Knocking on the Door: Pemborke (5-3; 2-1); vs. Scituate - Pembroke's hopes are alive and well if they win this weekend against first place Scituate.  They dropped one against Quincy earlier, but the Presidents are out of contention, so the loss is essentially a non-factor.  

South Coast
- Favorite: Dighton-Rehoboth (8-1; 5-0); at Old Rochester - Big match-up for D-R this weekend, as they visit Old Rochester in hopes of pushing their league record to 6-0 and effectively wrapping up a playoff spot.
- Knocking on the Door A: Old Rochester (4-5; 4-1); vs. Dighton-Rehoboth - Old Rochester has got a great shot at stealing the South Coast, as their final two games are against the teams currently ahead of them (D-R and Apponequet).  If the Bulldogs win out, they're in.
- Dark Horse: Apponequet (7-2; 4-1); vs. Wareham - Apponequet is on the outside looking in after their loss to Dighton-Rehoboth, but if D-R chokes in their final two games, and Apponequet is able to win out, they would be champs.

Division 3A
Cape Ann Small
- Favorite: Hamilton-Wenham (6-2; 4-0); vs. Lynnfield - Winning out gets the Generals a playoff birth, but they'll have to knock off a very talented Lynnfield team this weekend to do so.  If they do, their Thanksgiving battle with Ipswich should be gravy (no pun intended).
- Knocking on the Door A: Lynnfield (8-1; 3-1); at Hamilton-Wenham - Lynnfield might be the most talented team in the league, but their loss at Newburyport was a killer.  They'll need to win out, then hope for Newburyport to lose one of their last two.
- Knocking on the Door B: Newburyport (5-4; 3-1); vs. Georgetown - They beat Lynnfield, but their loss to H-W to open the season is what has them in a tough position.  Winning out, coupled with a Hamilton-Wenham two game skid to end the season will catapult them to the top off the Cape Ann Small.  A three-way tie is also a possibility should H-W only lose one of their next two.

Catholic Central Large
- Favorite: Cardinal Spellman (9-0; 3-0); vs. Arlington Catholic - Winning out secures them a playoff birth.
- Knocking on the Door: St. Mary's (8-1; 3-1); at Bishop Fenwick - St. Mary's is only a game behind, but their loss to Cardinal Spellman stings.  The need to knock off Bishop Fenwick this weekend and hope Spellman closes out the season with a two-game losing streak.  

South Shore
- Favorite: Rockland (9-0; 5-0); at Norwell - Rockland has been phenomenal all year, and if they can win their remaining two games, they'll head back to the postseason.
- Knocking on the Door: East Bridgewater (8-1; 4-1); vs. Mashpee - They dropped one to Cohasset early on, but winning out would still give them the South Shore crown.  They'll need their best effort Thanksgiving against Rockland if they hope to do so.  

Tri-Valley
- Tri-Valley Championship: Medway (8-1; 8-1) at Holliston (8-1; 8-1) - It's winner take all this weekend, as Medway tries to knock off Holliston for the second time this year.

Division 4 
Boston North
- Favorite: Madison Park (5-1; 4-0); at East Boston - Madison Park is in the drivers seat, as a win this weekend at East Boston will lock down a league title.
- Knocking on the Door: East Boston (6-2; 3-0); vs. Madison Park - East Boston is very much alive, as wins this week against Madison Park and on Thanksgiving against South Boston will have them returning to States.

Commonwealth Large
- Favorite: Shawsheen (7-1; 3-0); at Manchester Essex - Win and they're in.
- Dark Horse A: Manchester Essex (3-5; 3-1); vs. Shawsheen - They may be under .500, but a win this week and two Greater Lawrence losses gives them the league.
- Dark Horse B: Greater Lawrence (6-3; 2-1); vs. Lynn Tech - Greater Lawrence dropped their game against Shawsheen, so they need to win out, then have Shawsheen lose two straight.

Mayflower Large
- Favorite: Blue Hills (8-1; 3-0); vs. South Shore Voc-Tech - Blue Hills can finish of their great season by beating South Shore Voc-Tech Friday night.
- Knocking on the Door: South Shore Voc-Tech (4-4; 3-0); at Blue Hills - SSVT needs a win against visiting Blue Hills this weekend, then another against Southeastern on Turkey Day to punch their ticket to the tourney.

Division 4A
Boston South
- In: Brighton (7-2; 4-0)

Catholic Central Small
- Favorite: Lowell Catholic (7-1; 4-0); vs. Marian - The only reason they occupy our "favorite" slot is because they have a better overall record than the second place team.  Winning out gets them in.
- Knocking on the Door: Pope John (6-2; 4-0); vs. Matignon - Pope John's path is cut and dry: wins over Matignon and Lowell Catholic assure them a post season birth.
- Dark Horse: Matignon (4-4; 4-1); at Pope John - Matignon was blown out by Lowell Catholic, so they'll need a win this weekend against Pope John and two straight Lowell Catholic losses.

Commonwealth Small
- Favorite: North Shore (8-1; 2-0); vs. Minuteman - As is the case with Lowell Catholic, they get the nod as favorite only because they have a better overall record than the team they're tied with.  Winning out captures them the crown.
- Knocking on the Door: Northeast (7-2; 2-0); vs. Chelsea - They're headed for a Thanksgiving showdown against rival North Shore with everything on the line if they can handle Chelsea this weekend.   

Mayflower Small
- In: West Bridgewater (7-1; 6-0)

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